Forex

Yesterday (June 12th):

• EUR/CAD continued its recent sideways movement, with no clear directional bias.
• The price action suggests continued uncertainty in the market.

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance:
  • 1.5238 – 1.5221 (Recent High & Support Turned Resistance)
  • 1.5300 (Psychological Level)
  • 1.5378 (Weekly High)
• Support:
  • 1.5100 (Psychological Level)
  • 1.5073 (50-Day Moving Average)
  • 1.5025 (June Low)

Indicators:

• Moving Averages: The 50-Day Moving Average at 1.5073 is a key level to watch. A break below could indicate a bearish tilt, while a move above 1.52 could signal a bullish resurgence.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): If available, check the RSI. A reading hovering around 50 suggests short-term neutrality, with no strong buying or selling pressure.

Overall:

• The EUR/CAD is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking a clear directional trend.

Trading Ideas (Disclaimer: This is not financial advice):

• Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 1.5238 (recent high) with a rising RSI could signal a potential move towards the weekly high of 1.5378 or even a retest of 1.54. This could be influenced by a weakening Canadian dollar or hawkish surprises from the Fed (if they hint at raising rates sooner).
• Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.5025 (June Low) and a declining RSI could indicate a decline towards the 50-Day Moving Average at 1.5073 or even lower. This could be supported by a stronger Canadian dollar due to rising oil prices or dovish signals from the Bank of Canada (if they hint at rate cuts).

Neutral Scenario: If the price remains stuck between 1.5025 and 1.5238 with the RSI oscillating around 50, the consolidation might continue.

Important Note:

• This analysis is based on publicly available information and should not be considered trading advice.
• Forex trading is risky, and you can lose money. Always conduct your own research before making any trades.

Additional Resources:

• DailyFX: EUR/CAD – Live Rate, Forecast, News and Analysis – https://www.dailyfx.com/eur-cad
• Forex.com: EUR/CAD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – June 3, 2024 – https://www.forex.com/en-us/forex-trading/eur-cad/ (This analysis may be dated, but provides a good starting point)
• TradingView: EURCAD Chart – Euro vs Canadian Dollar – https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURCAD/

Yesterday (June 12th):

• EUR/GBP continued its recent downtrend, with the Euro struggling against the Pound.
• However, there were some signs of potential short-term buying pressure as the price bounced slightly off intraday lows.

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance:
  • 0.8614 – 0.8603 (Former Support turned Resistance)
  • 0.8644 (Weekly High)
  • 0.8691 (Previous Resistance)
• Support:
  • 0.8500 (Psychological Level)
  • 0.8478 (June Low)
  • 0.8415 (Next Major Support)

Indicators:

• Moving Averages: The short-term moving averages are likely sloping downwards, indicating a downtrend. The price’s position relative to the longer-term moving averages (e.g., 200-day) could also be informative.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): If available, check the RSI. A reading below 50 suggests potential selling pressure, and a continued decline could indicate the downtrend is gaining momentum.

Overall:

• The short-term trend remains bearish, with the Euro under pressure.
• However, yesterday’s bounce suggests a possible short-term correction.

Here are some trading ideas based on the technical analysis (Disclaimer: This is not financial advice):

• Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 0.8478 (June Low) and the RSI dips further, a decline towards the major support zone at 0.8415 or even lower could be on the horizon.
• Bullish Scenario: A break above 0.8603 (former support) and a rise in the RSI could indicate a short-term reversal. However, overcoming the resistance at 0.8644 (weekly high) would be crucial for a more sustained bullish move.

Additional Resources:

• DailyFX: EUR/GBP: Euro – Pound Rate, Chart, Forecast, News & Analysis – https://www.dailyfx.com/eur-gbp
• CentralCharts: EUR/GBP – Technical analysis – https://www.centralcharts.com/en/7169-eur-gbp (be aware this analysis may be dated)
• TradingView: EURGBP Chart – Euro vs British Pound – https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURGBP/technicals/

Remember:

• This analysis is based on publicly available information and should not be considered trading advice.
• Forex trading is risky, and you can lose money. Always conduct your own research before making any trades.

Yesterday (June 12th):

• Gold prices experienced some volatility after a strong surge earlier in the week.
• The price ultimately closed slightly down, hovering around the psychological level of $2,300 per ounce.

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance:
  • $2,350 (Recent High)
  • $2,375 (Weekly High)
  • $2,400 (Psychological Level)
• Support:
  • $2,300 (Psychological Level)
  • $2,273 (50-Day Moving Average)
  • $2,250 (June Low)

Indicators:

• Moving Averages: The 50-Day Moving Average at $2,273 is a key level to watch. A break below could indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): If available, check the RSI. A reading above 50 suggests possible buying pressure, while below 50 indicates potential selling pressure.

Overall:

• The short-term trend for gold is currently unclear.
• The recent price action indicates consolidation around $2,300.

Here are some trading ideas based on the technical analysis (Disclaimer: This is not financial advice):

• Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above $2,350 and holds, a move towards the weekly high of $2,375 or even a retest of $2,400 is possible. This could be supported by a weakening US dollar or dovish signals from the Fed.
• Bearish Scenario: If the price falls below $2,273 (50-Day Moving Average) and the RSI dips below 50, a decline towards the June low of $2,250 or even lower could be on the horizon.

Important Note:

• This analysis is based on publicly available information and should not be considered trading advice.
• Gold trading is risky, and you can lose money. Always conduct your own research before making any trades.

Additional Resources:

• Investing.com: XAU USD Technical Analysis – https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd-technical
• TradingView: XAUUSD Chart – Gold Spot US Dollar Price – https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/
• YouTube: XAuUSD Gold Technical Analysis 10 to 14 June 2024 (be cautious of video recommendations and forecasts) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L955sM8Ky5k

Yesterday (June 12th):

• EUR/USD experienced a bounce after recent declines, attempting to recover from the gap down earlier in the week.
• This price movement suggests some short-term buying pressure.

Key Technical Levels:

• Resistance:
  • 1.0811 – 1.0803 (Support turned resistance)
  • 1.0852 (Weekly High)
  • 1.0916 (June Top)
• Support:
  • 1.0719 (June Low)
  • 1.0664 – 1.0638 (Target Zone)
  • 1.0601 (2024 Low)

Indicators:

• Moving Averages: No clear signal yet. We’d need to see if the price can hold above or break below the key moving averages (e.g., 50-day or 200-day) for a stronger directional indication.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): If available, check the RSI. A reading above 50 suggests possible buying pressure, while below 50 indicates potential selling pressure.

Overall:

• The short-term trend remains slightly bearish due to the recent downtrend.
• However, yesterday’s bounce indicates a potential short-term reversal.

Here are some trading ideas based on the technical analysis (Disclaimer: This is not financial advice):

• Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above 1.0811 and holds, a continuation to the weekly high of 1.0852 or even 1.0916 is possible.
• Bearish Scenario: If the price falls below 1.0719 again, a move towards the target zone of 1.0664 – 1.0638 or even the 2024 low of 1.0601 could be on the horizon.

Important Note:

• This analysis is based on publicly available information and should not be considered trading advice.
• Forex trading is risky, and you can lose money. Always conduct your own research before making any trades.

Additional Resources:

• DailyFX: EUR/USD: Euro – Dollar Rate, Chart, Forecast & Analysis – https://www.dailyfx.com/eur-usd
• FXStreet: EUR/USD Forecast, News and Analysis (Euro and US Dollar) – https://www.fxstreet.com/currencies/eurusd

The current outlook from the Fed. As of June 13, 2024:

• The Fed has kept interest rates steady at 5.25% – 5.50%.
• Their projections (dot plot) indicate only one rate cut is likely before the end of 2024.

This stance reflects a cautious approach. While inflation has come down from its 2022 highs, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and they want to be sure price increases are under control before easing interest rates.

Here’s how this could affect EURUSD:

• Potential EURUSD Rise: If the market views this single rate cut as a dovish sign, it could weaken the USD and strengthen the EURUSD. This is because investors might see the Fed less committed to fighting inflation, making the dollar less attractive.
• Limited Impact: If the market already expected one rate cut, the actual decision might have a muted effect on EURUSD. The focus might shift to the Fed’s comments and the dot plot for clues about the future pace of rate cuts.
• EURUSD Weakening: An unexpected hawkish tilt from the Fed, suggesting they might hold rates steady or even consider increases, could strengthen the USD and weaken EURUSD.

Overall, the impact on EURUSD depends on how the market interprets the Fed’s decision and its implications for future rate cuts.