In January 2024, the forecasted average annual crude oil prices are expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2023. Here are the predictions:
- Brent Crude Oil: The average price for Brent crude oil is projected to be $82 per barrel (b) in 2024, which is similar to the 2023 average. In 2025, it is expected to decrease slightly to $79/b. This forecast considers a relatively balanced global supply and demand for petroleum liquids over the next two years.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI): Although WTI prices are expected to follow a similar path, they will likely be slightly lower than Brent. In the first quarter of 2024, crude oil prices are anticipated to rise due to OPEC+ production cuts, leading to global stock draws. Specifically, Brent prices are forecasted to increase from $78/b in December 2023 to $85/b in March 2024. However, after April 2024, crude oil prices are expected to gradually decrease as global production surpasses consumption, resulting in minor stock builds.
- OPEC+ Production: The relatively small crude oil price changes are attributed to continued reduced OPEC+ production. OPEC+ crude oil production is estimated to drop from 37.1 million b/d in 2023 to 36.4 million b/d in 2024. In 2025, OPEC+ production is expected to increase, averaging 37.2 million b/d. These values exclude Angola, which left OPEC in January 2024. The latest OPEC+ agreement includes additional voluntary cuts to its crude oil production target through March 2024.
- Non-OPEC+ Production: Non-OPEC+ countries produced an estimated 52.0 million b/d of petroleum liquids in 2023. Non-OPEC+ production is projected to average 53.0 million b/d in 2024 and 53.9 million b/d in 2025. U.S. production is expected to increase by 0.4 million b/d in both 2024 and 2025.
- Global Petroleum Consumption: Global petroleum consumption is forecasted to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2024 and 1.2 million b/d in 2025, slightly below the 10-year pre-pandemic average (2010–19). Economic growth and a return to pre-pandemic travel patterns contribute to this consumption growth.
For a more detailed analysis, you can refer to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for January 2024. Keep in mind that these predictions are subject to various factors, and actual prices may vary.